Model Prediction of Potential Disease Effects from PM2.5 Emission Among School Children in Coming 30 years in South Tangerang

Background: The largest global environmental health risk factor is the ambient of air pollution, that largely attributed to transportation emissions. One of the main causes of PM_2.5 emissions is thought to be onroad transportation. PM_2.5 has an impact on health, especially on children that relate to the respiratory system such as asthma, lung cancer, and decreased intelligence. Objective: The research objective was to predict the risk potential disease due to PM2.5 in children from vehicle emissions in South Tangerang City. Method: This research is an observational analytic study with a cross-sectional study design using a dynamic model approach using STELLA software. The environmental and human samples aare used to calculate the exposure level to PM_2.5 taken from 32 points in 7 sub-districts of South Tangerang City (North Serpong, Serpong, Pondok Aren, Ciputat, East Ciputat, Pamulang, and Setu). then, meteorological data was also collected. Results: The number of vehicles in the city of South Tangerang is quite high, especially between 11:00 and 15:00 with the majority of vehicles passing by are cars and motorbikes. PM_2.5 pollution levels will fluctuate until 2053. The effects of temperature, weather, and humidity might cause an increase in PM_2.5 pollutants at specific times. According to the modeling calculation results, even though there are occasions when PM_2.5 pollution levels fall, acute respiratory infection (ARI) incidence in children will continue to rise over time. Although PM_2.5 emissions fluctuate, exposure to PM_2.5 in low concentrations poses a risk to human health.